Volatility Arbitrage Forex - cantieriperoccupazione.com

Taking advantage of market inefficiencies - Jubilee Ace

Taking advantage of market inefficiencies - Jubilee Ace
When it comes to economic theory, trading on financial markets is bound by the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. It suggests that markets will process all available information about asset values and prices efficiently and quickly in such a way that there will be little if any room for price discrepancies across markets, and that prices will move soon toward equilibrium levels.
While this theory indeed works, traders have found that markets have not shown themselves to be 100% efficient at all times due to asymmetric information between buyers and sellers.
One such occasion of market inefficiency is when one exchange’s ask price is lower than another exchange’s bid price, also known as a “negative spread.” For instance, this may happen when one exchange quotes a particular amount for a currency, while another exchange is referencing a different price.

Jubilee Ace
“When a situation like this arises, forex traders can make a quick profit by simultaneously executing a purchase from the first exchange and a sale to the other exchange. In essence, the trader begins the trade in a situation of profit, rather than having to wait for a favorable evolution of market trends,” says Tony Jackson, Chief Executive Officer of Jubilee Ace, an arbitrage trading platform.
These situations tend to occur more often in periods of market volatility. They can also arise because of price quote errors, failure to update old quotes (stale quotes) in the trading system or situations where institutional market participants are seeking to cover their clients’ outstanding positions.
“Arbitrage benefits the most when there is high volatility. The volatility enables more opportunities for gaps in asset pricing and thus creating more arbitrage contingencies for traders,” says Jackson. “Arbitrage can help traders increase their profitability even during unstable markets,” he added.
submitted by myaquajubileeace to u/myaquajubileeace [link] [comments]

Mainfinex: The Panacea to the Future

Mainfinex: The Panacea to the Future

Mainfinex

MAINFINEX offers a trusted exchange that crypto traders can use to make informed trades and participate in the cryptocurrency market. At the time of launch, MAINFINEX offers 15 different cryptocurrency pairs, all of which include USDT. The MAINFINEX cryptocurrency exchange offers something for every type of trader, regardless of experience level. Beginners will appreciate the intuitive interface and the fact that MAINFINEX uses Tradingview charts, which have numerous online tutorials for guidance. Advanced traders will appreciate the hundreds of drawing tools, the vast quantity of indicators, and high level of customization for charts.
Challenges faced by cryptocurrency exchanges today:
● Failure to apply global financial practices, and poor interface
● Large number of exchanges with little differentiation which complicates the choice of platform for operations
● Large number of unsuccessful traders losing money
● Pain points that are still there.

Exchange
Our understanding of the needs of the key trading parties in digital exchanges comes down to the concept “Traders seek liquidity and investors need profitability.”
  1. Liquidity and profitability
A mechanism we could build in to solve the problems of traders and long-term investors based on the exchange policy related to
trading fees:
  • Flexible interest rate depending on the volume, thus reducing the trading fee. The more activity in a trading section, the cheaper it is for that section
  • Fees reduced in case of severe price deviation. To reduce volatility and slippage and thus increase liquidity, market-making traders creating liquidity will be charged at a lower rate. The increase in volumes triggered by the reduced fee in case of price deviation will help smoothen out volatility.
  1. Reliability
Traders bearing losses have a regressive fee scale depending on the volume of the loss. This mechanism serves to mitigate the consequences of unfavorable deals for a trader.
  1. Sustainability “Back to the battle” Traders who have lost money but made it to the daily TOP 100 based on the volume will receive tokens compensating all the fees they paid or part of the losses. This will help stimulate liquidity in the exchange and create best cryptocurrency market conditions for arbitrage funds. Such funds account for up 80% of transaction in fiat exchanges.
  2. Concept: gaming elements of the exchange, buttons, etc. “Titles and statuses” With the emergence of cryptocurrencies, the world of finance has been transformed. It has to be clear and relevant for our users since the key audience of the exchange is 25-38 years old. Which means they played DOOM 2 when they were school students (in 1994). Why can’t we give simple names to complex financial instruments? It was the stunts and dirty tricks that guys in suits from investment banks played that eventually caused the mortgage crisis. We have selected the most popular financial instruments that we can provide. They can be understood and activated in one click. We have chosen simple names for them:
● "Forecast”
This button activates an analytical indicator used by most profitable traders
● "Call for help”
Activates a trading robot that will close transactions for you based on algorithms. Trading robots will be provided by successful third party funds
● "Stop me”
Block trading activity for two days. This is a mechanism that successful traders recommend to newbies. Breaks in trading activity help increase the accuracy of decisions and overall profitability
● "Join the group”
This function lets the user transfer money to a pool of professional traders. Similar to PAMM accounts in forex companies
● “Saving up for retirement”
10% from each profitable transaction will be automatically transferred to the annual/call deposit. Many experienced traders who work for themselves do not care about savings because trading is a constant source of big income. Having such a long-term deposit is one of the key ways to ensure security and can even save a family in the bad times
● “Work for us”
Traders without substantial deposits but with free working hours can make money by performing important tasks for the exchange, like in Amazon Mechanical Turk
● “Vanity fair”
Most successful traders may share their divine trading strategies in a master class for traders, with payment in our tokens.
  1. To benefit from certain options like the trading robot or funds management, users will be required to perform specific actions, e.g.: Purchasing exchange tokens. Equivalent free options: e.g., reposting our news daily throughout a month, which will also help expand the user’s subscriber base.
  2. Purchasing liquidity from “mini exchanges”
A partner exchange that will provide liquidity for trading in our exchange or display our depth of market diagram on its website will receive all the relevant fees collected in our tokens. This is how this mechanism works. Mini exchanges have a permanent audience of traders creating liquidity but due to the small volumes, the mutual liquidity among the participants is low and transactions are infrequent. This is a case of “the chicken or the egg” problem. The more users there are, the more frequently the transactions occur between the same users. Accordingly, a mini exchange will be able to increase the volume of fees collected by 3-4 times by using this opportunity.
  1. IEO sale
A shopping cart with all kinds of tokens. Includes both potentially successful and unsuccessful coins that cannot afford to pay the listing fee on their own. We collect the entire pool in a cart and sell it as one portfolio at a greatly reduced price. This gives unsuccessful ICO projects an opportunity to return part of the invested funds. And the users buying such assets at a rate below the cost level have more chances of profiting from price growth. The higher risk of unsuccessful projects in the portfolio compensated by the low price and the potentially high profitability is the key incentive.
  1. Exchange Tutorial
Just like in complex computer games such as urban construction simulators or turn-based strategies, at the first stage the player is taught how to use the game’s functionalities before he starts playing it in the full mode. Finance and cryptocurrencies have never been simple. Every individual financial instrument is based on a complex concept. The simplicity of starting to trade cryptocurrencies and the lack of regulation in the market result in a situation when most traders lose their money and investments. The tutorial works the same simple way, providing prompts on the sequence of the steps in the exchange. We will cooperate with several financial regulators to improve this instrument in order to develop new instruments that will help mitigate the risk of losses for each individual trader. At the end, many of the regulators’ tasks come down to managing the consequences of the great financial gap between trading parties.

Information correct at time of going to type. For updated information, go to Mainfinex Exchange web platform (Mainfinex Exchange website).
Note: In the event of conflict between this information and the information on the Mainfinex Exchange Website, the information on the Mainfinex Exchange Website will prevail.
Here, I present to you Mainfinex- The Future of Cryptocurrency Exchange, Mainfinex!!!
Mainfinex Exchange website
Mainfinex Exchange WhitePaper
ETH Address: 0x49d576e54C78e17E4451E7eF9f1d9C8e55360661
Email Address: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
submitted by Busganda to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Forex.com/GAIN Capital

I made a Reddit account just to post this. Do NOT use Forex.com/GAIN Capital. Their customer service is pushy, rude, and have hassled me to fund my account immediately after opening it. They also have technical issues with their systems. I've only had good experiences with one of their reps.
I recall one time I sent an ACH request but never saw the request occur on my bank's end (Goldman). I ended up contacting Forex.com and found out that an error occurred on Forex's end, resulting in the funds never clearing. Normally, this wouldn't be an issue since I could re-send the request but because of their error, they force closed my positions (which proceeded to fly) and shut down my account. This was AFTER I contacted their rep due to concerns about the ACH request not showing up on Goldman's end, and they told me the day before they shut down my account that there would be no issues so long as I had the cash (which I did).
After that, I decided to let bygones be bygones and attempted to reinstate my account. They ignored my support requests until I called them directly, and their rep told me there's nothing they can do since compliance automatically closes accounts, and that compliance's attitude is that "if the individual has account issues, we don't want to do business with them anyways." I would've sued them for their screw up but the amount was too immaterial (~$500) to justify the legal fees/hassle.
Since then, I've swapped to Oanda and their platform and service is VASTLY superior. Not only have they not hassled me about immediate funding, but their spreads don't fluctuate as much, and I've never had deposit issues or have had to deal with annoying reps. I've noticed that since I've swapped, I've been stopped out significantly less frequently. The only time spreads get kind of large is around the daily market reset, but that's standard for non-institutional Forex trading. Given the materially smaller spread volatility despite being a smaller broker, I have a suspicion that Forex.com intentionally creates slightly larger spreads than their liquidity pools would call for to profit off the arbitrage. I have no evidence other than experience, but I'd say I get stopped out about 1/4 as much now that I'm trading with Oanda (I use very tight stops). I hope GAIN Capital's attitude changes since it's cost them quite a bit of spread fees given my active trading and a lot in future business from my dis-recommendation to friends, family, and internet peeps.
submitted by for3xtrad3r to Forex [link] [comments]

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

How To Invest in Cryptocurrencies: The Ultimate Beginners Guide

All statements are based on the author’s experiences. I take pride in informing the public and helping as many as I can through sharing my experiences with my readers. That said, no one except you can take responsibility for your Cryptocurrency Investing decisions, so do think it through before investing.
If you would like to learn more about the techlogogy behind cryptocurrencies, please check out our blockchain courses on crypto.
When I first started taking an interest in cryptocurrency I thought I was so lost in this huge sea of unknowns. Where do I start? What are the useful keywords to look up and keep in mind? What are the available helpful resources? This cryptocurrency investing guide is written so that in just 20 minutes, you would have a sense of what to expect of your upcoming crypto journey, and how to best go about starting it. Enjoy it, it might just be the most exhilarating ride of your life.

Rise of the Cryptocurrencies
As the tech literacy of the population increases, acceptance of crypto as a legitimate store of value follows, and it boomed. Titles along the lines of ‘Bitcoin price hits new all-time high’ and ‘Ethereum price surges’ are starting to perforate the general public’s news feed. What we know for sure is that people who were once skeptical of Bitcoin and the technology behind it are slowly understanding and getting increasingly involved with crypto. As at the time of writing, the market cap of the entire crypto space is at 30.9 billion USD. It was 20 billion just four months ago. What would it be four months from now?
Current Makeup of the Cryptocurrency Space
You would have heard of Bitcoin and the ‘altcoins.’ How this naming convention started was because back in the days of 2011, forks of Bitcoin appeared in the markets. The forks, or clones, each aspire to serve a niche area, aiming to be ‘better’ than Bitcoin. Since then countless new crypto has emerged, eroding away Bitcoin’s crypto market cap dominance. These altcoins are gaining market share at an alarming speed. Ten times or more growth has been observed in a time span as short as six weeks (see PIVX, an altcoin).
Cryptocurrency, Stocks, and Fiat
The currencies we know are referred to as ‘fiat’ by the cryptocurrency community. Although having ‘currency’ in its name, cryptocurrencies share more similarities with stocks than currencies. When you purchase some cryptocurrency, you are in fact buying some tech stock, a part of the blockchain and a piece of the network.
Cryptocurrency Exchanges
The most common place where people buy and trade cryptocurrency is on the exchanges. Exchanges are places where you may buy and sell your crypto, using fiat. There are multiple measures to judge the reliability and quality of an exchange, such as liquidity, spread, fees, purchase and withdrawal limits, trading volume, security, insurance, user-friendliness. Out of all these, I find Coinbase as the best exchange hands down. It has a beginner-friendly user interface, and an unbeatable 100% crypto insurance.
After setting up an intermediary bank account and verifying your details with Coinbase, you are only five simple steps away from a Bitcoin purchase:
  1. Access the ‘Buy/Sell Bitcoin’ tab
  2. Select the payment method using the drop-down menu
  3. Enter the desired amount
  4. Click ‘Buy Bitcoin Instantly.’
  5. View your credited Bitcoins on your dashboard
When you get acquainted with buying crypto and start to itch for some crypto trading (e.g. BTC/ETH), simply perform an instant transfer from Coinbase to GDAX free of charge and start trading. Think of Coinbase as the place to conveniently buy and store your crypto and GDAX as your margin trading platform. Transfers between the two are instant and free.
As you slowly get familiar with other currencies, you might want to have the option of investing in them. Bittrex and Polo are two exchanges that offer a wide selection range.
When signing up on these exchanges for the first time, do make it a point to verify your account with the required documents early, as you do not want to be caught in the middle of some tedious and slow admin work when the trading opportunity comes. Verification on these exchanges may take days, and purchase/withdraw limits may only increase gradually as you trade.
An additional point to note: if you are using a currency other than USD, do check out the exchange’s ease of funding and withdrawal. You do not want your exchange to come into fiat withdrawal problems like Bitfinex did recently.
Cryptocurrency Wallets
Exchanges have inbuilt online wallets to keep the cryptocurrency you purchased. However, for those who heard of the Mt. Gox hack, you might feel uneasy to put on an exchange. If you do not wish to keep your crypto holdings on the exchange, you have the option to either use a paper wallet service like myetherwallet.com or spend 99 USD on a hardware wallet like KeepKey. Both serve the purpose of removing platform risk, at the cost of taking up the responsibility of keeping your cryptocurrency safe.
To transfer your crypto from exchanges to your hardware wallet for long term storage, simply follow these steps, using Coinbase and KeepKey as an example:
  1. Plug in your KeepKey USB cable
  2. Open your KeepKey Client (on Google Chrome under Apps)
  3. Find your wallet address on the KeepKey Client UI
  4. Access Coinbase ‘Send/Request’ tab and input your KeepKey wallet address
  5. Confirm amount and click ‘Send Funds’
Take note to first send a tiny amount (e.g. 0.0001 BTC) for testing before sending the bulk, lest an error occurred and the transfer amount is lost. A small network transfer fee might be charged.
Personally, I own a hardware wallet, as I love the feeling of a having around a tangible reminder of my crypto holdings. Also, the hardware wallet’s user interface makes it easy to keep multiple coins, which is especially handy when you participate in ICOs (Initial Coin Offering) in the future.

Cryptocurrency as a Percentage of Your Investment Portfolio

This part will be wildly subjective. Crypto has the potential to realize many ‘rags to riches’ stories, but its volatility makes it unpredictable. As a precaution, the money you put in crypto should be money that you are fine with losing. I cannot emphasize the importance of this as we often underestimate how the volatility affects our emotional capacities. The upside is huge, but it comes with lots of risks and, if I may put it, emotional torment.
A conservative portfolio I would suggest is as follows:
< 30 years old (max) 30% Crypto, 50% Traditional Investments
30 – 40 years old (max) 20% Crypto, 60% Traditional Investments
> 40 years old (max) 10% Crypto, 70% Traditional Investments
This is not meant to be age discriminatory but considers the fact that one takes up more financial responsibilities (mortgage, family) as he grows older.
Within the designated crypto share of your portfolio, you may diversify your coins based on your risk appetite.

Show Me the Money! Cryptocurrency Investing

Now, this is where it gets exciting.
How do we pick the winner? How do we avoid picking the loser?
Note that crypto is now in a huge bull market and anything could rise over time. Also, do not dismiss the possibility that we may be in a bubble like the-dot-com boom back in 2000. Still, ask yourself these questions before you decide to invest in a coin:
Short Term Trading with Margin
Once you get familiarized with crypto, you may want to trade on your ‘stash’ in hopes of increasing it. For the experienced forex traders, this is nothing new. But for the new crypto investor, you may want to brief up on how to make a leveraged trade.
Short-term trading takes advantages of incoming news to make a quick buck. If you foresee good news from an upcoming release of a coin, you may want to open a long and see how it goes. Remember, buy the rumor, sell the news; act fast and be daring if you wish to make a profit with short term trading.
Mining
For those who are more comfortable with a predictable form of reward, mining is the way. Mining involves setting up of a rig, consisting of GPUs or CPUs and an investment in the electricity. Mining is only possible on cryptocurrencies that follow the Proof of Work protocol. It takes some effort to setup and gets things running, but it is attractive as a long-term passive income as long as you frontload the work.
Staking
Staking is the Proof of Stake version of ‘mining.’ Think of this as making dividends on your stock. The reward rate and staking method differ greatly among Proof of Stake coins, but in general, it takes less effort as compared to mining.
Arbitraging
As you get a hand in multiple exchanges, you may wish to buy from one exchange and sell on another to make ‘arbitrage’ gains when you spot an arbitraging opportunity. Take note of two things if you wish to do so: remember to factor in fees, and remember that the price could change when you are transferring your coin between exchanges, especially during volatile times. USD tends to be liquid so this happens less for it, but for other currencies such as CAD (Canadian dollar) and SGD (Singapore dollar), there may exist more arbitraging opportunities to exploit.
That’s about all I have, for now, invest smart and most importantly, don’t forget to have fun!
submitted by alifkhalil469 to BtcNewz [link] [comments]

Here is All IN 1 Quick Guide for people with less time!

The Absolute Beginner’s Guide to Cryptocurrency Investing

References are made wherever possible. All statements are based on the author’s experiences. I take pride in informing the public and helping as many as I can through sharing my experiences with my readers. That said, no one except you can take responsibility for your Cryptocurrency Investing decisions, so do think it through before investing. If you would like to learn more about the techlogogy behind cryptocurrencies, please check out our blockchain courses on crypto.
When I first started taking an interest in cryptocurrency I thought I was so lost in this huge sea of unknowns. Where do I start? What are the useful keywords to look up and keep in mind? What are the available helpful resources? This cryptocurrency investing guide is written so that in just 20 minutes, you would have a sense of what to expect of your upcoming crypto journey, and how to best go about starting it. Enjoy it, it might just be the most exhilarating ride of your life.
Rise of the Cryptocurrencies
As the tech literacy of the population increases, acceptance of crypto as a legitimate store of value follows, and it boomed. Titles along the lines of ‘Bitcoin price hits new all-time high’ and ‘Ethereum price surges’ are starting to perforate the general public’s news feed. What we know for sure is that people who were once skeptical of Bitcoin and the technology behind it are slowly understanding and getting increasingly involved with crypto. As at the time of writing, the market cap of the entire crypto space is at 30.9 billion USD. It was 20 billion just four months ago. What would it be four months from now?
Current Makeup of the Cryptocurrency Space
You would have heard of Bitcoin and the ‘altcoins.’ How this naming convention started was because back in the days of 2011, forks of Bitcoin appeared in the markets. The forks, or clones, each aspire to serve a niche area, aiming to be ‘better’ than Bitcoin. Since then countless new crypto has emerged, eroding away Bitcoin’s crypto market cap dominance. These altcoins are gaining market share at an alarming speed. Ten times or more growth has been observed in a time span as short as six weeks (see PIVX, an altcoin).
Cryptocurrency, Stocks, and Fiat
The currencies we know are referred to as ‘fiat’ by the cryptocurrency community. Although having ‘currency’ in its name, cryptocurrencies share more similarities with stocks than currencies. When you purchase some cryptocurrency, you are in fact buying some tech stock, a part of the blockchain and a piece of the network.
Cryptocurrency Exchanges
The most common place where people buy and trade cryptocurrency is on the exchanges.Exchanges are places where you may buy and sell your crypto, using fiat. There are multiple measures to judge the reliability and quality of an exchange, such as liquidity, spread, fees, purchase and withdrawal limits, trading volume, security, insurance, user-friendliness. Out of all these, I find Coinbase as the best exchange hands down. It has a beginner-friendly user interface, and an unbeatable 100% crypto insurance.
After setting up an intermediary bank account and verifying your details with Coinbase, you are only five simple steps away from a Bitcoin purchase:
  1. Access the ‘Buy/Sell Bitcoin’ tab
  2. Select the payment method using the drop-down menu
  3. Enter the desired amount
  4. Click ‘Buy Bitcoin Instantly.’
  5. View your credited Bitcoins on your dashboard
When you get acquainted with buying crypto and start to itch for some crypto trading (e.g. BTC/ETH), simply perform an instant transfer from Coinbase to GDAX free of charge and start trading. Think of Coinbase as the place to conveniently buy and store your crypto and GDAX as your margin trading platform. Transfers between the two are instant and free.
As you slowly get familiar with other currencies, you might want to have the option of investing in them. Bittrex and Polo are two exchanges that offer a wide selection range.
When signing up on these exchanges for the first time, do make it a point to verify your account with the required documents early, as you do not want to be caught in the middle of some tedious and slow admin work when the trading opportunity comes. Verification on these exchanges may take days, and purchase/withdraw limits may only increase gradually as you trade.
An additional point to note: if you are using a currency other than USD, do check out the exchange’s ease of funding and withdrawal. You do not want your exchange to come into fiat withdrawal problems like Bitfinex did recently.
Cryptocurrency Wallets
Exchanges have inbuilt online wallets to keep the cryptocurrency you purchased. However, for those who heard of the Mt. Gox hack, you might feel uneasy to put on an exchange. If you do not wish to keep your crypto holdings on the exchange, you have the option to either use a paper wallet service like myetherwallet.com or spend 99 USD on a hardware wallet like KeepKey. Both serve the purpose of removing platform risk, at the cost of taking up the responsibility of keeping your cryptocurrency safe.
To transfer your crypto from exchanges to your hardware wallet for long term storage, simply follow these steps, using Coinbase and KeepKey as an example:
  1. Plug in your KeepKey USB cable
  2. Open your KeepKey Client (on Google Chrome under Apps)
  3. Find your wallet address on the KeepKey Client UI
  4. Access Coinbase ‘Send/Request’ tab and input your KeepKey wallet address
  5. Confirm amount and click ‘Send Funds’
Take note to first send a tiny amount (e.g. 0.0001 BTC) for testing before sending the bulk, lest an error occurred and the transfer amount is lost. A small network transfer fee might be charged.
Personally, I own a hardware wallet, as I love the feeling of a having around a tangible reminder of my crypto holdings. Also, the hardware wallet’s user interface makes it easy to keep multiple coins, which is especially handy when you participate in ICOs (Initial Coin Offering) in the future.

Cryptocurrency as a Percentage of Your Investment Portfolio

This part will be wildly subjective. Crypto has the potential to realize many ‘rags to riches’ stories, but its volatility makes it unpredictable. As a precaution, the money you put in crypto should be money that you are fine with losing. I cannot emphasize the importance of this as we often underestimate how the volatility affects our emotional capacities. The upside is huge, but it comes with lots of risks and, if I may put it, emotional torment.
A conservative portfolio I would suggest is as follows:
< 30 years old (max) 30% Crypto, 50% Traditional Investments
30 – 40 years old (max) 20% Crypto, 60% Traditional Investments
> 40 years old (max) 10% Crypto, 70% Traditional Investments
This is not meant to be age discriminatory but considers the fact that one takes up more financial responsibilities (mortgage, family) as he grows older.
Within the designated crypto share of your portfolio, you may diversify your coins based on your risk appetite.

Show Me the Money! Cryptocurrency Investing

Now, this is where it gets exciting.
How do we pick the winner? How do we avoid picking the loser?
Note that crypto is now in a huge bull market and anything could rise over time. Also, do not dismiss the possibility that we may be in a bubble like the-dot-com boom back in 2000. Still, ask yourself these questions before you decide to invest in a coin:
Short Term Trading with Margin
Once you get familiarized with crypto, you may want to trade on your ‘stash’ in hopes of increasing it. For the experienced forex traders, this is nothing new. But for the new crypto investor, you may want to brief up on how to make a leveraged trade.
Short-term trading takes advantages of incoming news to make a quick buck. If you foresee good news from an upcoming release of a coin, you may want to open a long and see how it goes. Remember, buy the rumor, sell the news; act fast and be daring if you wish to make a profit with short term trading.
Mining
For those who are more comfortable with a predictable form of reward, mining is the way. Mining involves setting up of a rig, consisting of GPUs or CPUs and an investment in the electricity. Mining is only possible on cryptocurrencies that follow the Proof of Work protocol. It takes some effort to setup and gets things running, but it is attractive as a long-term passive income as long as you frontload the work.
Staking
Staking is the Proof of Stake version of ‘mining.’ Think of this as making dividends on your stock. The reward rate and staking method differ greatly among Proof of Stake coins, but in general, it takes less effort as compared to mining.
Arbitraging
As you get a hand in multiple exchanges, you may wish to buy from one exchange and sell on another to make ‘arbitrage’ gains when you spot an arbitraging opportunity. Take note of two things if you wish to do so: remember to factor in fees, and remember that the price could change when you are transferring your coin between exchanges, especially during volatile times. USD tends to be liquid so this happens less for it, but for other currencies such as CAD (Canadian dollar) and SGD (Singapore dollar), there may exist more arbitraging opportunities to exploit.

Link the original blog post: https://blockgeeks.com/cryptocurrency-investing/
submitted by Tokenberry to NewbieZone [link] [comments]

Strategies And Secrets Of High Frequency Trading (HFT) Firms

fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #hft #forex #fx #crypto #gbpusd

Strategies And Secrets Of High Frequency Trading (HFT) Firms Secrecy, Strategy and Speed are the terms that best define high frequency trading (HFT) firms and indeed, the financial industry at large as it exists today.
HFT firms are secretive about their ways of operating and keys to success. The important people associated with HFT have shunned limelight and preferred to be lesser known, though that's changing now.
The firms in the HFT business operate through multiple strategies to trade and make money. The strategies include different forms of arbitrage – index arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, statistical arbitrage and merger arbitrage along with global macro, long/short equity, passive market making, and so on.
HFT rely on the ultra fast speed of computer software, data access (NASDAQ TotalView-ITCH, NYSE OpenBook, etc) to important resources and connectivity with minimal latency (delay).
Let’s explore some more about the types of HFT firms, their strategies to make m.....
Continue reading at: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/092114/strategies-and-secrets-high-frequency-trading-hft-firms.asp
submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

Market Inefficiencies/Imbalances?

Hey everyone! I️’m curious if anyone would be so kind as to share some names of generic market or liquidity inefficiencies that can be exploited for trade strategies. Ideally for futures and equities, but definitely interested in forex. Only looking to research these inefficiencies, how to exploit them is something I respect as secret so no worries if you keep that part to yourself!
For instance, implied volatility plays a part in an imbalance that can be exploited, as the price goes down and implied volatility doesn’t increase, you’ve got an imbalance that can be used to predict likely future motion. Likewise, implied volatility drops but prices fall, another imbalance. Basically rely on mean reversion arbitrage using inputs of different market features that are notably out of balance from expected motion.
No details beyond the identified imbalances is needed, and of course l understand this begins to flirt with secrets, but really just looking for some inefficiencies that I️ can try to develop my own strategies around.
Thanks for all your advice!
submitted by imactually to algotrading [link] [comments]

On AIR: Hacken Answers the Questions in Regards to Marketing Activities

On AIR: Hacken Answers the Questions in Regards to Marketing Activities
As a part of the answers to the Q&A launched by Hacken, we are delighted to share our vision on Marketing Activities.
Marketing, as well as product development, is one of the Key activities. Based on the questions we received from the Community we created 3 Marketing Blocks: Community Building, Market making, and Customer Management. Below we are telling about each of them in details.

COMMUNITY BUILDING

KEY PRINCIPLES:
The main principles come from Hacken’s mission - to make the crypto space mature, secure, and transparent. Undoubtedly, to achieve it, we need the assistance of the crowd, who are the market participants.
As a result, our fundamental principles are grounded in the incentives for people to support our mission:
1) Influence
Each HKN token holder will be able to participate in the voting process to select the future development directions of the company. The voting power will be determined by the percentage of tokens held by a person.
2) Fair Rewarding
Each HKN token holder will be justly rewarded for his/her contribution to the functionality of our blockchain network (being nodes and master nodes) and to the development of our business (paying active & loyal community members tokens, merch, tickets, etc.).
3) Facilitation
Hacken will guide and support community members who are willing to contribute to Hacken’s mission either with us or independently. The support includes the following areas: business development, marketing, cybersecurity, R&D and so forth.
F.e. you can conduct an investigation similar to CER’s research on BitForex. Our team will review the work and give recommendations regarding the ways to improve it if needed. Then, Hacken will deliver the results to the community to ensure the highest coverage of the investigation.
Therefore, our community structure and principles are designed to achieve visibility, inclusiveness, transparency, flexibility, and efficiency. We believe that this approach will significantly foster the achievement of Hacken’s mission and the overall progress within the industry:
The more we contribute, the more we have. Together, we will make a difference!
SMART OBJECTIVES:
S - Specific
Develop a worldwide network of local community members — people who will do their best to help Hacken reach the common goal and achieve marketing and business development success. The key factor is fostering the ideology of “family,” “common goal”, and “mutual benefit.”Credo: The more each of us contributes, the more we have! This thinking concerns a secure crypto space, fair exchanges, lack of scams, higher demand for Hacken, and cybersecurity services.
M - Measurable
The goal will be evaluated by local community branches in 5 locations: the US, Japan, Korea, Europe, Turkey. Active community members in each region will also assist with the implementation: short-term goal — 500, middle — 1000, aggressive — 1500.
A - Achievable
We already have loyal supporters who voluntary promote Hacken and find new dev opportunities for the company.We believe that if we create a more comprehensive management structure (working process and processing of inbound requests), content marketing (adaptation and distribution of content) and motivation system (encouragement according to levels), we will succeed in community management and marketing.
R - Relevant
The cooperation between Hacken and well-established blockchain companies like Vechain, SONM, SingularityX etc. has proved that the presence of active and involved community members positively affects marketing performance, capitalization of a coin, trading volume, and volatility.
T - Time
The deadline for the implementation of the project — 3 months.
CURRENT COMMUNITY DESIGN
As for now, we have a next outline describing the Community structure and processes.
Community Organizational Structure
Content Outbound Distribution
Inbound Request Operating

MARKET MAKING

SHORT TERMS VOLUME/PRICE INCREASING
Hacken gained significant experience and knowledge about exchanges and exchange rate fluctuations while conducting marketing activities.
Thus, we concluded that:
Direct stimulation of the bidding and courses (an activity illegal in traditional fond markets) doesn’t guarantee a long-term effect and, moreover, can be harmful;
The number of active exchange members and listing standards is the main criteria for a token that plans to be listed;
Expanding community support via social media accounts of an exchange, accounts of partners or other media communities brings the organic growth of trades and prices;
Inter-exchange and inter-arbitrage can bring a healthy and organic pump required shortly after the start of trading.
Logical consequences:
The continuous community growth and effective communication with users are the essential parameters for Hacken and key performance metrics on our way to volume/price increase.
Listing on a new exchange. Currently, we are about to start the Token Protocol Migration and listing on new exchanges, which may have a significant marketing effect, especially for selling HKN tokens before and after Protocol Migration.
The increase of client base, continuous community growth and effective communication with the HKN community members are the essential parameters for Hacken and key performance metrics on our way to volume/price increase.
HKN EXCHANGER OPERATING
At the end of the spring, we realized that it was difficult for our clients to purchase the token because they had to register on a different exchange to buy HKNs.
The most efficient way to resolve this issue was to create an automatic exchanger.
Hacken Exchanger, a tool that allows one-way transactions to buy HKNs, was developed by our partners Paytomat to facilitate the process of buying HKN tokens for our clients from hub.hacken.io and hackenproof.com. One can find Hacken Exchanger on top of the main tab of our website - https://hacken.io/
Subsequently, we plan to upgrade it: tokens will be automatically bought from an exchange in order to replenish its reserve.
CER MONETIZATION STRATEGIES
Currently, CER is free of charge, but some of the most useful blocks will be available under paid subscription after October 1, 2018.
We plan to offer three different ways to get access to the platform:
  • Paid subscription for individual investors and enterprises
  • Free availability to those holding a sufficiently high amount of HKNs
  • Including a crypto exchange to CER scoring boards

CUSTOMER MANAGEMENT

EXISTING CUSTOMERS AND CONCLUSIONS
Our customers are blockchain and IT companies.
We provide a full range of cybersecurity services: anti-phishing protection, smart contract audit, and penetration testing. Most of our clients stay with us: once they order a service from Hacken, they appreciate the quality of our work and purchase other services.Furthermore, we continuously expand and improve the services we offer to meet the growing demand. For example, we've just released an anti-phishing bot, which will help our customers automatically identify and remove fake accounts in Telegram groups.Additionally, we expect to expand our client base by establishing close ties with existing clients and encouraging them to recommend our services to other companies.
Cybersecurity Service Business Modeling
CYBERSECURITY MARKET
The cybersecurity market will grow by 12-15 percent until 2021.
According to the “Deltek’s Federal Information Security Market Report,” the demand for cybersecurity services by the US federal government will increase up to $11 billion by 2020. More and more federal agencies increase the cybersecurity spending share of their budgets; Deltek expects that by 2020 the average share of cybersecurity spending within an IT budget will exceed 10 percent.
WHY HKN?
We will do our best to bring these budgets to HKN Capitalization.
submitted by Ivan_Hacken to hacken [link] [comments]

Dual Thrust Trading strategy

Dual Thrust Trading strategy
Abstract
The Dual Thrust trading algorithm is a famous strategy developed by Michael Chalek. It has been commonly used in futures, forex and equity markets. The idea of Dual Thrust is similar to a typical breakout system, however dual thrust uses the historical price to construct update the look back period - theoretically making it more stable in any given period. www.fmz.com
In this tutorial we give an instruction details to the strategy and show how to implement this algorithm on FMZ. After pulling in the historical price of the chosen trading pairs, the range is calculated based on the close, high and low over the most recent N-days. A position is opened when the market moves a certain range from the opening price. We tested the strategy on individual trading pairs under two market states a trending market and range bound market. The results suggest this momentum trading system works better in trending market but will trigger some fake buy and sell signals in much more volatile market. Under the range bound market, we can adjust the parameters to get better return. As a comparison of individual trading pairs, we also implemented the strategy on BTC/USDT. The result suggested that the strategy beat the market.
Its logical prototype is one of the more common Day trading strategies. The opening range breakout strategy is based on today's opening price plus or minus a certain percentage of yesterday's amplitude to determine the upper and lower rails. When the price breaks through the upper track, it will buy long, and when it breaks the lower track, it will sell short.
The basic principle of this strategy www.fmz.com
  1. after the market closed today, calculate two values: the highest price - the closing price, and the closing price - the lowest price. Then take the one which is larger in these two values, multiply this value by 0.7. let’s call it value K. The result is called the trigger value.
  2. after the market opening tomorrow, record the opening price, then buy immediately when the price exceeds (opening price + trigger value), or sell short when the price is lower than (opening price - trigger value).
  3. This strategy has no clear stop loss. This system is a reverse system, that is, if there is a short position order holding at the price exceed the (open + trigger value), then it will send two buying order (one to close the wrong position, another one to open the new position for the right direction). For the same reason, if there is a long position order holding at the price lower the (opening-trigger value), then it will send two selling order.
Which by mathematical expiation is :
range=max(HH−LC,HC−LL)
The long signal is calculated by
cap=open+K1×Rangecap=open+K1×Range
. The short signal is calculated by
floor=open–K2×Rangefloor=open–K2×Range
where K1 and K2 are the parameters. When K1 is greater than K2, it is much easier to trigger the long signal and vice versa. For demonstration, here we choose K1 = K2 = 0.5. In live trading, we can still use historical data to optimize those parameters or adjust the parameters according to the market trend. K1 should be small than k2 if you are bullish on the market and k1 should be much bigger if you are bearish on the market.
www.fmz.com
This system is a reversal system, so if the investor holds a short position when the price breaks the cap line, the short margin should be liquidated first before opening a long position. If the investor holds a long position when the price breaks the floor line, the long margin should be liquidated first before opening a new short position.
Dual Thrust has made improvements in this opening range breakthrough strategy: www.fmz.com
  1. In the range setting, the four price points of the previous N days are introduced, so that the range in a certain period is relatively stable, and can be applied to the daytime trend tracking;
2, Dual Thrust for the buying long and selling short trigger conditions, consider the asymmetric amplitude, long and short reference Range can choose a different number of cycles, can also be determined by parameters K1 and K2. When K1K2, the short position is relatively easy to be triggered.
Therefore, when using this strategy, on the one hand, you can refer to the optimal parameters of historical data testing. On the other hand, you can start to adjust K1 and K2 in stages according to your own judgment of the post-trend or from other major cycle technical indicators.
This is a typical trading way of waiting for signals, entering the market, arbitrage, and leaving the market, but the effect is outstanding. www.fmz.com
www.fmz.com
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

Can we expect spreads to lower over time?

One of the use cases of Bitcoin is to serve as an intermediate currency for international remittances. Say I have EUR and want them converted to USD. First I do a EUBTC trade, then a Bitcoin transaction, and then a BTC/USD trade.
Assume that both trades are done simultaneously, that there are no exchange fees and no mining fees, and that there is no three-point arbitrage opportunity if EUR and USD could be locally converted for free at mid-market rate.
Then the cost of this international remittance is essentially the spread. As far as I can tell, the fiat-bitcoin spread on the most liquid exchanges is quite volatile, but often is around 0.3%.
As an entrepreneur building a business that does international remittances with Bitcoin as an intermediate currency, I have three questions:
submitted by bobthesponge1 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

How do you price a USD/Bitcoin forward contract?

I have been lurking for a while and am pretty impressed with the caliber of this forum, so here's my challenge: I am having a hard time seeing how any crypto currency ever overcomes exchange rate volatility. Like most of you I am very excited by the potential of a decentralized currency, but I cannot get my head around the practical conundrum.
The conundrum in a nutshell: liquid debt markets are the sine qua non of stable exchange rates, but volatile exchange rates deter borrowers and lenders from originating Bitcoin-denominated debt.
How can an entrepreneur ever build a Bitcoin-based business if no lenders will quote them an interest rate on a Bitcoin-denominated loan? As a potential investor in a Bitcoin-denominated business, what baseline return would you demand on an investment with a 1-year payback period? How about a 5-year payback period?
If you can’t hedge exposure to Bitcoin volatility then how can you even think about Bitcoin-denominated investments?
Quick primer on using debt markets to price forward currency contracts: the forward discount/premium between two currencies is driven by the ratio of interest rates on deposits, because a decoupling of interest rates and currency forwards would represent an arbitrage opportunity (with turnover of >$4 trillion per day the global foreign exchange market is mind-bogglingly liquid; it reacts swiftly to new information and obvious inefficiencies are quickly traded away).
For example, say the 1-year rates on USD and MEX deposits are 2% and 3%, respectively. If the current (spot) exchange rate is 15 MEX/USD, then the 1-year forward contract would be 15.14706 MEX/USD (15 x 1.03/1.02).
The intuition behind this is that you could simultaneously (i) borrow 1,000 USD at 2%, (ii) trade 1,000 USD for 15,000 MEX, (iii) invest the pesos at 3%, and (iv) lock in the 1-year forward rate of 15.14706 MEX/USD. After one year you would receive 15,450 MEX (15,000 x 1.03), which after settling your forward contract would yield 1,020 US (15,450 / 15.14706), which is exactly what you owe on the original loan (1,000 x 1.02). Total wash.
If the forward rate were anything other than 15.14706 you could generate arbitrage. Another example: if the 1-year rate were 15.1000 MEX/USD then by borrowing 1,000 USD at 2% and investing it as 15,000 MEX at 3% you would end up after a year with 1,023.18 USD (15,450 / 15.1000), which after paying your 1,020 USD loan leaves $3.18 of risk-free profit.
Here’s my point: deep, liquid debt markets are the ballasts of currencies. They stabilize long-term exchange rates so that borrowers and lenders are comfortable committing to long term investment vehicles. If long-term exchange rates are not stable (i.e.; tradable at stable rates) then companies are squeamish about doing business in foreign countries and trade is limited to short-term transactions. This is what we see today in the Bitcoin economy, with merchants swapping out Bitcoins for dollars immediately following their transactions.
This strikes me as a classic chicken/egg problem. For want of a ForEx market Bitcoin can’t develop a debt market, and for want of a debt market the ForEx market will never appear.
Disclaimer: I’m not an economist, but like most of you I have a strong amateur interest in economics. My ForEx background is largely academic (I structure commodity derivatives for a living). My understanding could be completely off base, and I am wide open to being shown my errors.
submitted by what_wags_it to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

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